Response to Mark Ritson’s “All that glitters isn’t social media gold”

Any marketer worth their salt regularly checks out Marketing Week’s Mark Ritson for his weekly erudite, witty and knowledgeable column.

I’m sure this week will be no different, and as such, I feel I’ve got to get my oar in, because this week Mr Ritson is that rare thing.  He is wrong.  The article endorses web guru, Douglas Rushkoff’s view that Facebook is going to go the same way as any other number of online bubbles, and will burst sometime soon in a frothy burst of data and Fairy liquid.  To quote a quote

“In an article for CNN earlier this week, he was in no mood for equivocation. He believes Facebook’s current success will be short lived. Rushkoff argues: “We are witnessing the beginning of the end of Facebook. These aren’t the symptoms of a company that is winning, but one that is cashing out.”  His basis for this statement is the transient nature of social sites.  In much the same way as this month’s sexy young things may be seen at Bar X, give it a month and they’ll have moved on to Bar Y, leaving the soooo last month Bar X to go out of business.

At first glance, this might well seem like a legitimate argument.  We only have to look at Myspace as an example of the fickle nature of social surfers.  Here today, gone tomorrow, today’s online audiences hold as much loyalty to their social sites as I do to the stick of chewing gum in my pocket.  Less in fact.  If I want to change my gum I’ve got to get my arse out of the rather cosy chair that I’m typing from and head down to the local Co-op. Online users don’t even have to leave the comfort of their armchairs when switching sites.  So, what’s stopping Facebook going the same way as Myspace and Friends Reunited?  In short, Mark Zuckerberg, that’s what.

The death knell first sounded for Myspace when News International brought it up for £375 Mln.  Friends Reunited suffered the same defeat shortly after ITV brought a controlling interest.  Large corporations, by their very nature are bureaucratic beasts.  The larger the corporation, the more processes are instigated and the more hoops there are to be jumped through before changes can be made.  For some industries (pharmaceuticals for instance) changes to products may take years, or even decades to be rolled out to the man on the street, and this isn’t seen as a problem.  In the social sphere however, change is a continuous process.  Facebook evolves almost daily, and in doing so swallows up new concepts and fads at a rate of knots Bill Gates should be envious of.  Remember Foursquare?  Say hello to Facebook Places.  What about Gumtree?  Say hello to Facebook Marketplace.  MSN?  Facebook Messenger.  The list goes on.  And Facebook is able to continue this epic march quickly and with ruthless efficiency because its decisions are made by one man, and one man only.  There’s a lot to be said for single minded determinism.  Next stop, Poland?

In all seriousness, it’s this constant adaptation that keeps Facebook ahead of the game.  Just take a look at Myspace (and then take a look at a screen grab of Myspace from 8 years ago and see if you can spot the difference).  The biggest threat to Facebook isn’t that it’s going to be replaced in the public’s affections by the latest fad.  The biggest threat is Zuckerberg deciding he’s made for life, selling up, and buying up a private island in the South Pacific (Hawaii?) to while away his days buying and selling ex Russian states.  The encroachment of Goldman Sachs on the Facebook bandwagon may well have a few doom-sayers predicting the end is nigh, but currently it looks like Zuckerberg’s got absolutely no rhyme nor reason to float Facebook, and why would he, it’s not like he needs the money.  No folks, Facebook is going to be around for a long time yet.  We’ll talk again in five years Mr Ritson.

***Update***

And with the launch yesterday of Facebook Deals we can see the final nail in the coffin for FourSquare, and what I would consider an early warning shot fired across the bow of Groupon.  Whilst the take up of the bigger brands, including Starbucks, O2 and Alton Towers offering discounts of up to 20% isn’t on par with groupon’s notoriously large discounting offers as yet, as smaller, more localised businesses come on board, there will be a very real threat.  Facebook, less a website, more a way of life!